Will summer sizzle or fizzle? El Niño holds the key to summer across Canada
The Weather Network’s 2026 Summer Forecast
OAKVILLE, Ontario, May 27, 2026 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Canada’s journey from winter to summer has been extra turbulent this year. Most of the country has experienced an early taste of mid summer-like heat, but spring has once again tested our patience with many detours and delays. Will the changeable pattern continue through summer?
According to The Weather Network’s Summer Forecast for the months of June, July, and August, a hot summer is expected across western Canada. However, the rest of the country should see a more variable summer with periods of very warm weather broken up by stretches of cooler and unsettled conditions.
“The global pattern is in a state of upheaval as we are in the midst of a rapid transition from La Niña to what appears to be an exceptionally strong El Niño event,” said Doug Gillham, Senior Meteorologist with The Weather Network. “Therefore, our summer weather pattern will have trouble locking into place. This should limit persistent or extreme summer heat across central and eastern Canada. Western Canada will be the exception but we don’t expect the heat will be as intense as we have seen during a few recent summers. ”
Drought and wildfires are a concern across western and parts of central Canada this summer since the dominant storm track is expected to be primarily south of the international border. However, the changeable pattern will still deliver some much needed rain at times. Showers and thunderstorms will be more frequent from the Great Lakes to Atlantic Canada, but summer will not be a washout as there will be stretches of dry weather.
Below is a more detailed look at the conditions expected across Canada this summer:
Ontario & Quebec – After a brief taste of summer during mid-May, the scenic journey to summer will continue through June with extended periods that feel more like late spring. Changeable conditions are expected during July and August. While there will be periods of hot weather, the heat will lack commitment and be offset by cooler conditions at times. As a result, we expect fewer days with 30 degree temperatures than we have seen during many recent summers. Below normal rainfall totals are expected for parts of northern Ontario, but the rest of the region will see more frequent showers and thunderstorms.
British Columbia – A strong start to summer is expected with warmer than normal temperatures and below normal rainfall during June. Unfortunately, this will bring an increasing risk for wildfires. Hot and dry conditions should dominate during July and most of August, but we do not anticipate that the heat will be as extreme or relentless as what we have seen during some recent summers. The transition to cooler weather should also happen earlier in September than we have seen during many recent years.
The Prairies – A very warm and dry start to summer is expected during June, especially across western parts of the region. However, July and August should feature more changeable conditions with periods of cooler weather, especially across Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan. While drought and wildfire smoke will continue to be a concern, we are cautiously optimistic that we will see some significant relief with showers and thunderstorms at times during the heart of the season.
Atlantic Canada – A slower start to summer is expected with near seasonal or cooler than seasonal temperatures expected through June. The heart of the summer season during July and August should be near seasonal, but there will be stretches when temperatures will tend to be on the cooler side of seasonal offset by periods of warmer than normal temperatures. Precipitation should be more plentiful than it was last summer. While a less active hurricane season is expected, we still have a risk for significant impacts from a tropical system.
Northern Canada – A warm and dry summer is expected across western parts of the region with a heightened risk for wildfires and poor air quality at times. A somewhat cooler summer is expected across central and eastern parts of the region with near normal or cooler than normal temperatures. Precipitation totals should also be near normal, but smoke could still be an issue at times.
| The Weather Network: Summer 2026 Forecast | ||
| Region | Temperature Outlook | Precipitation Outlook |
| British Columbia | Above normal | Below normal |
| Alberta | Above normal | Below normal; Near normal northeast and far south |
| Saskatchewan | Above normal west; Near normal central and east | Below normal; Near normal north |
| Manitoba | Near normal | Below normal; Near normal north |
| Ontario | Below normal | Above normal south and east; Below normal northwest; Near normal elsewhere |
| Québec | Below normal south and west; Near normal east and north | Above normal south; Near normal elsewhere |
| The Maritimes and Newfoundland | Near normal | Above normal Maritimes; Near normal Newfoundland & Labrador |
| Yukon, Northwest Territories, Nunavut | Above normal west; Near normal central; Below normal east | Near normal; Below normal west |
Canadians can check daily forecasts by visiting www.theweathernetwork.com or by downloading The Weather Network App available on iOS and Android, and creating an account for personalized and up-to-the minute forecasts.
Complete summer forecast details, including regional breakdowns, maps and charts are available on our seasonal page at theweathernetwork.com/summer/.
Interview opportunities: The Weather Network meteorologists are available for interviews between May 27-29 to provide additional details and localized insights on what Canadians can expect for the summer season.
To arrange an interview with a meteorologist, please contact:
Madelaine Lapointe
mediainquiry@pelmorex.com
About Pelmorex
Pelmorex is the company behind the well-known trusted weather brands, The Weather Network, MétéoMédia, Eltiempo, Otempo and Clima. Its mission is to provide fast, accurate weather forecasts, personalized insights and critical weather alerts, empowering people, communities and businesses worldwide to make informed decisions amidst the changing weather. This core intelligence is extended through Pelmorex Weather Source, its enterprise division, which helps companies turn weather uncertainties into strategic advantages. Pelmorex is also a key public safety partner and operates Canada’s National Alert Aggregation and Dissemination System, part of the Alert Ready emergency alert system.
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A photo accompanying this announcement is available at https://www.globenewswire.com/NewsRoom/AttachmentNg/954ad13b-2e29-4ba1-84ee-69660dd1835a
Temperature map of The Weather Network’s summer forecast
The Weather Network’s 2026 Summer Forecast
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